(source: J. Kappenman, Metatech Corp)
The 2008 National Academies workshop report on societal and economic impacts of severe space weather events, covered earlier this year by New Scientist and NASA, included contributions from John Kappenman of Metatech Corporation, based on a study under the auspices of the Electromagnetic Pulse Commission and FEMA.
A 1989 solar storm shut down the Quebec power grid, with some areas not being brought back online for days. An even larger geomagnetic storm was recorded in 1859, which first demonstrated the connection between auroras, electricity and magnetism when it brought down telegraph networks
During the display I was calling Richmond, and had one hand on the iron plate. Happening to lean towards the sounder, which is against the wall, my forehead grazed a ground-wire which runs down the wall near the sounder. Immediately I received a very severe electric shock, which stunned me for an instant. An old man who was sitting facing me, and but a few feet distant, said that he saw a spark of fire jump from my forehead to the sounder.(New York Times, September 5, 1859)
This was followed by another in 1921
After 10 o'clock last night Washington was cut off telegraphically from the rest of the United States exept over a few wires.(New York Times, May 16, 1921)
A solar storm of the magnitude of the 1859 or 1921 storms, occuring today would bring disruption of GPS and other radio and satellite services, and might also cause significant long-term damage to the power distribution infrastructure, namely transformers.
The least understood aspect of this threat is the permanent damage to power grid assets and how that will impede the restoration process. Transformer damage is the most likely outcome, although other key assets on the grid are also at risk. In particular, transformers experience excessive levels of internal heating brought on by stray flux when [induced currents] cause a transformer's magnetic core to saturate and to spill flux outside the normal core steel magnetic circuit. Kappenman stated that previous well-documented cases have involved heating failures that caused melting and burn-through of large-amperage copper windings and leads in these transformers. These multi-ton apparatus generally cannot be repaired in the field, and if damaged in this manner, they need to be replaced with new units, which have manufacture lead times of 12 months or more.
A hypothetical storm at 50° geomagnetic latitude could significantly impact the Pacific Northwest, portions of the Midwest and almost all of the Northeast.
(source: J. Kappenman, Metatech Corp)
Copyright 1999-2011 Mark Wahl. All rights reserved.